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Published in r The Yorkshire Post By David Howell 5.12.06
Iraq – Is the Policy Wind Changing? British Foreign Policy has now seriously lost its way. Our national policy, direction and purposes in this dangerous world are now effectively drifting and in limbo. The Prime Minister calls for ‘A Whole Middle East Strategy’. But it seems we have had to wait for the Congress of the United States, through its Iraq Study Group, chaired by Mr. James Baker the Third and Congressman Lee Hamilton , to tell us what this new strategy is supposed to mean. The irony is that now this much-heralded Group has given birth it still fails to answer the big strategic question. It calls for phased withdrawal of American (and therefore British) troops from Iraq but avoids laying down a time-table , saying merely they will have to leave sometime soon – hardly a revolutionary conclusion. Yet the time has surely come for bold, independent and creative thinking about next steps in the Middle East. And Britain’s allies and friends, with whom together we can make the biggest contribution, should be not just the USA, and not just our European neighbours, but also our true and real friends in the Commonwealth and in Asia where power and influence are growing while Pax Americana slithers into tragic decline.
What are the elements of this new ‘Whole Middle East strategy’ which here in Britain we should be putting forward. They are : First, A united, and possibly federal, Iraq state must be preserved. This is not just a Western ambition. It remains totally in the interests of the neighbouring powers, -Turkey, Iran, Syria, Jordan – to prevent fragmentation and chaos. And a breakaway Kurdistan would be devastating for Iran, as it would for Turkey. That is why these countries just have to be brought together with ourselves, although it will not be done by threats and unrealistic conditions – a point which neither London nor Washington yet seemed to have grasped . The West are not the victors and they cannot dictate. Second, A fully independent Palestine has got to be fast-tracked into being, with world-backed security guarantees, as far as possible, for the Israelis, and a UN security force safeguarding Israel’s border areas from constant rocket attacks. Increasing numbers of people within Israel itself now see this as the only future, even if in Washington they do not yet. Washington must be urged to change gear on this. Third, Some kind of nuclear bargain must be devised that includes letting Iran have its civil nuclear power but persuading Israel, in exchange for guarantees again, to give up its nuclear weapons and Iran to hold back from its drive for nuclear weaponry as well. It may well be that the proposals for grafting on to the current Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty the concept of an international nuclear fuel bank, as being developed by International Atomic Energy Authority in Vienna (which I have just visited) are a way forward here. All that is easily said. What Iran wants above all is the respect which it feels should be accorded to a major regional power. Syria, too, wants that respect, and its current regime also wants some guarantee of continued existence. But then comes the poison in the chalice. Syria also wants to re-establish its dominance over Lebanon and this is the one thing Syria cannot be allowed to do. This is where any grand bargain or ‘Whole Middle East strategy’ could unravel, unless pursued not just with fine words but with colossal diplomatic energy and skill. Syria is straining every sinew to disrupt Lebanon at this moment. Whether it was actually implicated in the latest Beirut murder – of Pierre Gemayel – nobody knows. But it is organising ersatz rallies, with heavy payments to rent-a-crowd flag-waving attendees, largely imported from Syria itself. These the ever gullible BBC duly reports are bigger and more lively than the quiet Christian crowds that gathered at Gemayel’s funeral – which is hardly surprising. If Hezbollah are allowed to satisfy their power lust through street violence and demonstrations , and extend the sway of their masters, Iran and Syria, then stability, sanity and justice will have lost out in the Middle East and every remaining nation will be directly threatened, from Jordan to Saudi-Arabia, from all the Gulf States to Egypt. The co-operation which is essential to save Iraq from chaos will dissolve in a spatter of new civil wars and rivalries. That is why much more than rhetoric is needed to back the Lebanese Government of Fouad Siniora, and it should come not just from the West but from the new great powers as well - Russia, India, China, Japan. Indeed there is everything to be said for American policy taking a back seat in all these matters, especially after its miserable backing of Israel’s clumsy on Lebanon back in the summer.
We are coming to a crucial moment in our relations with the rest of the world. When it comes to choosing our allies and friends in the days ahead we should be ready to think right outside the box. The Americans need not compliant subordinates but real friends who can be candid and critical at the right times. And it is no use just hoping that somehow the EU will pull together and take charge in the Middle East. That will never happen. The key is both to engage all the regional powers, Iran, and Syria included, and at a broader level to ensure that the potentates of rising Asia, in Beijing, in Delhi, in Tokyo and in Moscow, realise that they, too, have a central interest in preventing Iraqi implosion and total conflagration throughout the Middle East –which is now not very far away. The one clear reality is that the present policies have failed and that a new dynamism and imaginative vigour are required in our approach to the eternally complex Middle East and its neighbours, if the slide to worse chaos is to be checked. Of that vigour and imagination I see little sign in the policies of Her Majesty’s Government. Ends
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