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Published July 19th 2007 in The Yorkshire Post
By David Howell
Is British Foreign Policy at Last Getting Some Edge?
Well, that’s two important friends upset – and all in the first few weeks of
Gordon Brown’s premiership.
Moscow is seething at London’s ‘immoral act’ of chucking out four of their
diplomats (read intelligence officers) in entirely justified retaliation for
their refusal to hand over the number one suspect in the ugly murder of Mr.
Litvinenko.
Meanwhile, Washington is more discreetly muttering at the ministerial
appointment of Mark Malloch-Brown, an open opponent of the neo-cons, and indeed
much of what President Bush says and does, together with heavy hints from
Douglas Alexander, the International Development Secretary and one of Brown’s
closest allies, that Britain is a bit tired of being too subservient to American
policy world-wide and that we would like to see both a more subtle use of ‘soft
power’ by the Americans and some change in the balance of the relationship.
Does it all matter? The answer is not at all, within limits. On the contrary, it
is thoroughly refreshing to see British foreign policy at last acquire some
edge. But those two words ‘within limits;’ are the key. As long as these are
just contained disputes or slight adjustments of attitude and posture it all
makes a lot of sense.
The Russians are a touchy lot, still suffering from post-Soviet trauma and
wondering why the world does not treat them with the awe and respect they feel
is still their due. As for the Americans, everyone knows that we admire and feel
nothing but amicable towards them but have strong reservations about George
Bush, his terrible rhetoric and his even more terrible friends . A change from
the ‘poodle’ days of Tony Blair was long overdue. In private lots of people in
the Government feel this way, as does the general British public, although out
in the open, and in the super-sensitive world of diplomacy, Ministers have to
rush around denying that there has been any shift at all.
But in the longer run, the scorecard looks quite different. Oddly enough it is
probably our relations with Russia that are the most important to get right. Of
course the USA is much the world’s largest economy and British business is
deeply interwoven with trans-Atlantic partners.
But on the broader international scene America’s reputation has sagged
appallingly, thanks to the Administration’s inept policies. Being known as too
friendly with the US is nowadays no help at all, as Tony Blair is doubtless
finding out at this moment as he wrestles with the Middle Eastern jigsaw.
What is more, although America may spend more than the rest of us put together
on its military might, the miniaturisation and dispersal of lethal weapons
technology now means that having thirteen carrier fleets and thousands of
missiles no longer guarantees American ascendancy – in the dangerous Middle
East, or in rising Asia, or anywhere else.
By contrast, we badly need close and responsible Russian involvement in the most
sensitive areas of the world, such as Iran, Iraq and Central Asia – regions
where terror is incubated before being propagated in the hearts of Western
societies. A constructive Russian role in the Israeli-Palestine conflict is
essential as well.
There is also the vital factor that Russia is a giant oil producer, second only
to Saudi Arabia and that almost half Europe’s daily gas supplies come from the
Russian direction – with inevitable knock-on effects on us here in the UK if,
and when, things go wrong somewhere along the supply chain. Nor should we forget
that British investment has been pouring into Russia – and vice-versa, as
football fans are well aware.
A foreign policy which ignores these facts, and let us drift into serious energy
security problems , would be utterly disastrous for us all. Has anyone noticed
in the recent furore that the world crude oil price has crept up almost to $80 a
barrel and after a pause will certainly head considerably higher? Gas price
hikes will not be far behind.
Handling prickly Russia correctly against this background is vital to our
wellbeing and security in the dangerous years immediately ahead. If that all
goes wrong we can forget about much longer-term visions of a low carbon world
and a greener future . It will be a question of survival now rather than
idealism four decades from now – no more Live Earth concerts if the power is
cut, and increasingly severe disruptions to both industry and homes in the
wetter, colder winters that anyway lie ahead. My recent book ‘Out of the Energy
Labyrinth’ (co-authored with Carole Nakhle)*, makes exactly this point.
The UK’s foreign policy does need to be gradually inched away from the old
assumptions about an Atlantic and Western dominated world. Neither America nor
the European Union are any longer calling the shots. In fact the Middle East now
anyway exports the overwhelming bulk of its oil eastwards to Asian customers ,
and not to the West, as once was the case. It will need the full cooperation not
only of Russia, but of China, India and the other giants of the near future to
bring some kind of peace and calm to the region.
It is good that British foreign policy, if we are reading it aright through all
the coded references, asides and leaks, is beginning to show some appreciation
of these changed realities. But as the present spat with Russia demonstrates, to
make any headway it will need a diplomatic agility and nerve of a high order,
and a truly profound grasp of the role our own country can play in the new
international network of nations – qualities which have not been evident in
British policy in recent times.
Let us hope that our charted course through the rough global seas is now being
quietly and skilfully altered .
Ends
* Published by I.B.Tauris. £8.99
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